How Likely Is Trump To Win The Presidential Elections 2020 

 May 23, 2020

By  BC Editorial Team

In a pre-COVID-19 America, news agencies were reporting that Trump had brighter chances of winning the Presidential Elections 2020. Media was quoting all sorts of poll results being conducted in the country and one such poll result indicated 65% chances of Trump winning the elections 2020. That was in February before the first death due to COVID-19 took place.

Towards the end of February, the COVID-19 hit America and the number of daily deaths rose to above 2000 in a night.  As soon as the pandemic hit, the media took a critical turn towards Trump’s somewhat rude and stubborn behavior when it came down to tackling the pandemic. Following the worsening health conditions in the country, a lockdown that was being anticipated was implemented alongside other social distancing protocols.

Due to the lockdown, a number of people became unemployed and the total number of jobs lost rested at 26.5 million as of April 2020. According to the same source, a total of 4.4 million Americans have filed for unemployment claims which are the highest in American history since 1934.

With unemployment hitting the historic levels and COVID-19 being mishandled to a larger extent due to Presidential negligence, the new stats that have been coming in show that Americans have had a change of heart.

This time around, they are most likely to vote for Joe Biden, who, according to a source has almost 50% of American voters backing him. Here is a brief breakdown of the likelihood of Trump’s winning the presidential elections 2020 and the factors which would contribute towards it.

The Yin And Yang Of Trump’s Chances Of Winning The Elections 2020

According to political experts, the popular opinion is changing gradually with more people vouching to vote for the Democratic candidate Joe Biden. This onset of this trend can be attributed to the fact that people are losing their trust in the Trump administration’s abilities to handle the pandemic and resolve the economic crisis which lies ahead.

The history of election results of the United States shows very clearly that many times candidates who were trusted by the masses won over the ones who had clear advantages in terms of policies and achievements. This means, even if Trump continues to build on the fact that he did pull out the United States economy of the bad state it was in the post-2009 recession, it is highly likely that the masses will vote for Joe Biden because he has gained their trust more.

While President Trump was seen making false claims such as ‘Americans feeling good about the COVID-19’, which he must have made in one of his overstating his achievements kind of mood, the truth is, general public deems Biden far more capable of handling the pandemic and trust him with their lives. It is obvious that Americans prefer their lives being saved over economic issues. The same thing happened in 2001 when most of the Americans voted for President George Bush because they trusted his regime had the ability to fight war of terrorism.

A different take on this topic would be what if President Trump does end up winning the Presidential Elections 2020, though his chances seem bleak.  While the poll results do favor Joe Biden, they are not always an accurate reflection of what might happen in the election. For example, in 2016 almost all media houses were predicting Trump’s defeat based on these polls but the final result was the opposite. This was because even though Trump’s ideologies had never really sat well with popular masses in 2016, Trump had favorable representation in the Electoral College.

The statistics issued back then showed the Hilary Clinton clearly led Trump by approximately 3 million popular votes but lost Presidency to him by 8 Electoral College votes.  The fact that Republicans have well-distributed representation in all stats and thus in the Electoral College still holds true for the 2020 Presidential Elections. This basically means that despite the true claims of Trump’s decreased popularity over time among the masses, he still holds bright chances of winning through the Electoral College.

Another factor which vouches for Trump’s victory is the fact that 8 out of 10 incumbent Presidents who ran for re-election won the White House office for a second term easily over their opponents. These statistics basically indicate the level of trust Americans put into their leaders.

Predicting the Outcome

Based on the above information, it can be deduced that President Trump still has a chance of winning the elections 2020, despite having lost popular votes. This is because, for one, elections are a time-sensitive process. With the recent development coming out each day, if President Trump is somehow magically able to reverse the effects of a pandemic on the United States economy or face the predicted second wave of COVID-19 with better strategies; he might still be able to win back popular votes.

Even if he doesn’t get the popular votes, the Electoral College representation of Republicans is enough as a strong pillar for him to fall back on.  Therefore, as mentioned in one of the poll stats above, it is safe to assume that for now Biden and Trump both have equal chances for winning. It’s a tie between the two Presidential candidates according to our analysis. Any one of them can win as the day comes closer but their victories will heavily depend on the trust factor that is an undeniable fact.


It is evident from the above discussion that though the popular votes might favor Biden, Trump administration still has a chance at winning the elections 2020.  For now, what Trump and his aides can do is utilize their daily White House briefings about the COVID-19 situation as a source of bonding with families of afflicted and forming trust with people of America so that they are able to gain back their lost voters.

Additionally, they can also come up with a plan to revamp the American economy post-COVID-19 with clear and measurable goals just like Trump advocated his clear ‘America First’ stance the last time.  apart from that, it still is too soon to say who will win with confidence since the voters’ opinion may change any time due to the latest developments in American politics which keep rolling in daily.

BC Editorial Team


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