Poll: California Voters Sour on High-Speed Rail
If measure to build the train system were on the ballot today, it would fail
If a bond measure to construct a high-speed rail system were put on a California ballot today, the state's voters would reject it by 59 percent, according to the results of a new Field Poll released Tuesday.
The results highlighted a significant change in voter sentiment since November 2008, when Proposition 1A passed with more than 52 percent of voter approval and successfully established California's High Speed Rail project.
Prop 1A provided $9 billion for the planning and initial development of the high-speed train system that would eventually connect San Francisco and Sacramento with the Central Valley, Los Angeles and San Diego.
When voters approved Prop 1A, the California High-Speed Rail project had a total price tag of $43 billion and a projected completion date of 2020.
In November, the High-Speed Rail Authority released a revised draft business plan that more than doubled the eventual cost and duration of the construction phase, estimating it would cost $98 billion to build and take until 2033 to complete.
Nearly two out of three of the voters who took part in the Field Poll stated they would support the legislature putting the bond measure back on the ballot for another public vote.
By an almost two-to-one margin, — or 59 percent to 31 percent — voters said they would reject high-speed rail, according to results.
The poll also found that 37 percent of voters who approved Prop 1A in 2008 would change their vote to no if the bond measure came on the ballot again.
According to poll results, 73 percent of Republicans would vote against high-speed rail compared to 49 percent of Democrats.
The High-Speed Rail Authority on Tuesday released a statement reminding voters that the project is expected to create more than 100,000 jobs and "give California the transportation infrastructure it needs to compete in the 21st Century."
The rail authority said it will continue to make its case to Californians "across the state who voted to start this project in 2008."
The Field Poll was conducted with 515 randomly selected voters and has a potential margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, pollsters said.
Eric Brooks
To properly assess the validity of this poll, we need to know who conducted it, how it was structured, and what the poll questions were.
This report contains no such information.
Patrick Barnes
Not to mention the size of the sample--515.
M L
Well that's a shocker. I was so looking forward to driving to Bakersfield -- so I could take the train to Fresno and back. Or was it the other way around?
Instead, I think I'll Bart from Marin to San Jose, instead of drive like 100,000 people do every day.
Oops. Oh Eric, your oops is the poops.
Rob Anderson
That 52% majority in 2008 wasn't exactly a landslide. Nothing the CHSR authority has done since has been reassuring to voters.
The latest business plan admits that the California HSR project only has enough money to build the valley, train-to-nowhere segment. This misconceived scheme always relied on billions from the federal government, which is a lot less feasible now than it was in 2008.
The legislature and the governor now have good reason to pulll the plug on the project.
The voters' guide from the 2008 election warned us about the exorbitant costs to taxpayers for just the $9 billion in state bonds: over the 30-year life of the bonds, state taxpayers would have paid $19 billion at $647 million a year!
http://www.voterguide.sos.ca.gov/past/2008/general/pdf-guide/suppl-complete-guide.pdf
Patrick Barnes
Well, what would you brains do, then; walk to where you want to go? You can barely drive anywhere in southern California faster. If it is this much now what do you think it will be when you're beloved Pelosi is done trading her Congessional account. She can still fly while you walk.
If left to California you would still be arguing about whether and how to get the western end of the transcontinental railroad done.
Rob Anderson
As a society, there are a lot of things that would be nice to have but that we can't afford. I know people who insist that the solution to our transit problems is putting a subway system under the city that goes to every neighborhood, even though we can't afford the Central Subway project that covers less than two miles.
You can't expect anyone to take your pro-HSR argument seriously until you come to grips with the kind of numbers I cited earlier. $647 million a year in interest on the HSR bonds even as the state is cutting money for education?
The folks at this site have done the best work on the numbers on the CHSR project: http://www.cc-hsr.org/
Aldo Moretti
A budget deficit of $16 billion , and Jerry is still pushing the HSR project.
Great, let's cut education, medical care, elder care, local public transportation, roads, bridges and highway infrastructure improvements to make a sacrifice for this wonderful HSR project.
Then, for a future generation, we will have a bunch of illiterate, unhealthy and unemployed kids who will ride a high speed train to nowhere doing nothing. Sounds like an old song by Traffic, Shanghi Noodle Factory.