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Rendering of proposed 49ers stadium in Santa Clara

The 49ers and Raiders both had disappointing seasons last year. Soon the Niners could share another unpleasant similarity with their cross-bay rivals: risky financing for a new stadium.

Santa Clara will vote on Measure J June 8 to decide whether to build a $937 million stadium for the 49ers. Santa Clara intends to pay part of the bill by selling fans "personal seat licenses" – the expensive right to buy tickets for choice seats in the new stadium.

The financing scheme was a bust across the Bay. Alameda County tried to sell seat licenses to pay for renovations to the Oakland Coliseum for the Raiders in the 1990s. The licenses didn't sell, lawsuits were filed and it ended up costing taxpayers more than $100 million.

The 49ers and stadium proponents said taxpayers are protected under the financing plan outlined in Measure J. But some sports economists and officials who lived through the Raiders fiasco wonder if history is repeating itself.

Alameda County Supervisor Gail Steele, who has dealt with the Raiders mess, had this assessment of Santa Clara's plans to use seat licenses for financing: "They're crazy."

"I don't want to hear they're in Santa Clara and they're in an upper-income area," said Steele. "Today's market is really really risky – we've been to hell and back with this stuff."

The breakdown of who pays for the 68,500-seat stadium is this: The team and the NFL pitch in $493 million; the city and a new hotel tax will account for $114 million; and a new stadium authority controlled by Santa Clara will put in $330 million.

The stadium authority would first sell bonds to raise the $330 million. The debt would be paid off with a combination of a ticket tax; selling so-called "pouring" rights to beer and soda companies; selling the name of the stadium to a corporate sponsor; and selling seat licenses to wealthy fans.

Neither the city nor the 49ers will release an exact breakdown of the $330 million. But Roger Noll, a sports economist at Stanford, estimates that about $120 million could come from the sale of seat licenses. A risky proposition, he said.

"The first time someone gets conned you can say, 'well okay,' but the second time?" said Noll, who isn't working for either campaign."They're assuming a huge liability."

Whether the cost of unsold seat licenses would get passed on to taxpayers is subject to debate. Ron Garratt, assistant city manager in Santa Clara who negotiated the deal with the 49ers, says no.

"There's so many examples of government agencies that ended up on the wrong side of these deals – enough that folks are nervous," said Garrat. "But with this agreement, if the authority doesn't come up with it, the team has an obligation to come up with the financing."

The agreement does say that the 49ers will pay for construction cost overruns. But when it comes to paying off the bonds down the road, it's a different story. The 49ers wouldn't have to pay off the debt if the authority doesn't get the money it needs from the ticket tax and naming rights, Garratt said. The 49ers, however, would have to reimburse the authority if not enough seat licenses can be sold to pay off the debt, he said.

Noll is of the opinion that if the authority can't pay off the bonds, the city might dip into the general fund to keep control of the stadium authority.

"If they don't let it go into bankruptcy, then the taxpayers are going to pay the bill," said Noll.

Garratt said that he doubts the doomsday scenario. But if it comes to that, the City Council would have to vote on it since the authority is a separate legal entity.

"If you're an elected official," he said, "you'd have to seriously consider making that vote."

Actually selling the seat licenses is another story.

Eric Melendez, a 49er fan who runs the blog Ninernoise.com, said he wouldn't buy one.

“I can see some fans shelling out the money for that,” Melendez said.  "Me, myself, I wouldn't do that because I hear they run into the thousands.”

The 49ers haven't said how much the licenses would cost. In an effort to finance a new stadium back east, the New York Giants priced theirs between $1,000 and $20,000 – and sold out. In contrast, the New York Jets, who will share the new stadium, tried to sell fewer at a higher cost – $4,000 to $30,000 – and haven't had the same success.

“I would think that it would have a fair amount of success. There's money in the marketplace and the Niners have a strong base,” said Marc Ganis, president of Chicago's Sportscorp Ltd., which worked on the Raiders deal. “But it depends on the approach they take. Do they take a more New York Giants approach or a New York Jets approach?”