Election 2010 Heats Up for Stretch Run

By: Jonathan Weber

Labor Day traditionally marks the moment when the public - as opposed to the growing army of political insiders and operatives - begins to pay attention to the upcoming elections. It's not clear that this is really true anymore in the era of the endless campaign, but with all the big California races looking very close, today at a minimum marks the beginning of an avalanche of election previews, news, analysis, and advertising campaigns.

The New York Times and its ace statistical analyst, Nate Silver, have put together an impressive, comprehensive guide to statewide races around the country. Silver says that as of today, Meg Whitman is expected to win the governor's race by a hair over Jerry Brown, 49.2% to 48.8%. (You certainly can't fault them for not committing.) Silver predicts Sen. Barbara Boxer will defeat challenger Carly Fiorina and that Democrats will hold the  Senate, though he hasn't yet posted his predictions on the House. 

Closer to home, Dan Walters of the Sacramento Bee notes that it's been almost 30 years since California had tight gubernatorial and Senate races in the same year. He predicts...that it will remain tight. Venerable Los Angeles Times Sacramento hand George Skelton takes on the Senate race, and says Fiorina bested Boxer in the first debate and that the incumbent needs to take some risks and debate more if she is to hold her seat. 

The Chronicle for some reason devotes a bunch of space to Whitman's pledge to cut waste and abuse in state government (was there ever a candidate in favor of waste and abuse?). The San Jose Mercury News has a pretty straightforward election preview, while the Los Angeles Times weighs in with an interesting look at the different styles of the different campaigns. (For links to most all of the state coverage, Rough and Tumble is the source, and if you're a local political junky in San Francisco it's The Usual Suspects.)

Here at The Bay Citizen, we're covering the big statewide races and some key local contests - and in fact we have a couple of new hires coming on as part of that effort. More soon on that, and happy Labor Day.