Zoe Corneli

Analysts: Big Changes Needed to Keep High-Speed Rail On Track

cahighspeedrail.ca.gov

California’s $43 billion high-speed rail project may be doomed to failure unless its management and finances are revamped, a strongly worded report from the state’s nonpartisan analysts has found.

In the report, released Tuesday, the Legislative Analyst’s Office recommended that the Legislature strip decision-making power from the High-Speed Rail Authority board and transfer day-to-day responsibilities to the state Department of Transportation, Caltrans.

“We have concluded that the current governance structure for the project is no longer appropriate and is too weak to ensure that this mega–project is coordinated and managed effectively,” author Eric Thronson wrote. It also fails to ensure that the state's best policy and fiscal interests are taken into account, the analysts found. “A new and separate division of Caltrans dedicated to the high–speed rail project would be better positioned, if equipped with the appropriate project delivery tools, to manage the development of the system in this phase,” the report said.

The analysts also issued a stark assessment of the project’s finances: the initial phase connecting San Francisco to Anaheim is likely to cost much more than the $43 billion initially estimated; the availability of funding necessary to complete the new system is “highly uncertain”; and there are too many restrictions on how and when the rail authority can spend the $3 billion in federal funds it has already received for construction.

If those problems aren’t addressed, the report suggests the state would be better off ditching the project altogether.

“We believe the state must obtain relief from the current federal restrictions on the project if it is to be developed successfully, and therefore that the Legislature should proceed with the project only if this flexibility is obtained from the federal government,” the report said.

The analysts also recommended that the Legislature pare down expenses during the present, early phase of the project by rejecting a proposed $185 million in spending on public outreach and project management in the 2011-2012 budget, instead allocating only the $7 million needed for administration.

California voters in 2008 approved Proposition 1A, authorizing the sale of $9 billion in general obligation bonds to pay for the high-speed rail system.

Zoe Corneli
I was a founding online editor of The Bay Citizen. Previously, I helped create the daily local news magazine Crosscurrents from KALW Public Radio, where I reported, edited and produced radio stories and managed the ... View Profile
Rob Anderson
Rob Anderson
wrote on 05/11/2011 at 9:56 a.m. PDT

It's not just a matter of the project's "management structure": the high-speed rail project was fatally flawed from the beginning, since it was sold to the state's voters based on inflated ridership numbers and lowballed operational expenses.
http://cc-hsr.org/assets/pdf/CHSR-Financial_Risks-101210-D.pdf

According to Prop. 1A, the system is supposed to be self-supporting, unlike any high-speed rail system in the world. There's been no private money invested in the system, because investors know that, without a state guarantee of a return, they can't make any money on the system.

The $9 billion in bonds are not marketable for the same reason, not to mention the huge cost to state taxpayers if they are sold. From the analysis on the ballot in 2008:
"If the bonds are sold at an average interest rate of 5 percent, and assuming a repayment period of 30 years, the General Fund cost would be about $19.4 billion to pay off both principal ($9.95 billion) and interest ($9.5 billion). The average repayment for principal and interest would be about $647 million per year."
http://www.voterguide.sos.ca.gov/past/2008/general/analysis/prop1a-analysis.htm

We have to look at the numbers from CHSR's own budget to see how implausible the whole project is:
Federal Grants: $17-19 billion
State Grants (Prop. 1A bonds): $9.95 billion
Local Grants: $4-5 billion
Private Debt or Equity Funding: $10-12 billion

The Federal money is increasingly unlikely, the bonds aren't marketable, and there's no private investment, and does anyone think that cities and counties are willing or able to throw $4-5 billion in the pot?

Turning this misbegotten project over to CalTrans won't make it a better project. It was only sold to California voters based on wildly inflated future passenger numbers. The Governors of Wisconsin and Florida also understood that their states would be responsible for the inevitable cost overruns in building the sytems and for operating the systems if/when they are built.

We can only hope this report is the beginning of the end for this boondoggle. Governor Brown should pull the plug on this project.

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